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Federalism
is the hottest potato in Uganda today. That is why there has been no
definite position taken by Government or Parliament; each preferring
an ambiguous, non-committal, middle-of-the-lane approach.
What
could be the impact of the federal debate on the electoral process?
One, is that if President Museveni figures that the opposition are
pro-federal, that could strengthen the position of Buganda at the
negotiating table. In that case, he could be boxed into a corner so
as to disarm the opposition. This is how and why he summarily
appointed the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) in 2001, when
his main opponent Dr. Kiiza Besigye won acclaim by promising to
appoint a CRC.
But
if the opposition does not commit itself to being pro-federal, then
that does lighten the President's load a bit by lowering his
inclination to make concessions to Buganda.
Two,
is that if federo is granted, it could result into a potential
trade-off, with Buganda on one side and the rest of the country on
the other. That would mean one would campaign freely in the rest of
the country; then come and deal with Buganda as one ethnic block.
That
would be a basis for tribal parties to spring up, the way Kabaka
Yekka did in the 1960’s; to take advantage of the unique electoral
mass that Buganda would be.
What
is tricky about the federal vote is that no one is absolutely
certain of just how big it is. Mengo habitually pulls out the
figures from the Odoki Constitutional Commission of the early 1990's
to argue that most Baganda support federalism. But these figures
cannot be regarded as conclusive or even persuasive, since these
were about the people who had the time, interest and capacity to
present their views to the Commission. They were not the product of
an elaborate universal plebiscite. There is also the probability
that the pressure for federalism is from Mengo downwards, rather
than from the grassroots.
Because
of this, the Museveni camp knows Mengo is negotiating from a weak
position and explains the carefree comments from the President that
he can win another election without Mengo. The 2001 Presidential
election does agree with him, since he floored pro-federo Besigye in
Buganda (outside Kampala).
One
crucial premise in the federal debate is the
never-admitted-but-religiously-observed theory or tenet of the ever
byzantine Ugandan politics: you cannot govern Uganda without
Buganda.
This
is at the back of both parties; one seeking to capitalise on it, the
other eager to challenge and controvert it and prove that Uganda has
outgrown such ideology and one can win an election without having to
bow the knees for Buganda or bend the rules to fit its demands.
Buganda's
desire for cultural rejuvenation and social cohesion; the nostalgia
for past glory and the sheer emotive reward of seeing Kampala being
legally pronounced as being in Buganda is irresistible to some.
But
this should be argued alongside the reality of potential for ethnic
disunity, the possibility for emergence of tribal and undemocratic
parties; plus the probability of return to primitive and parochial
politics of the past.
The
current stand-offs and ultimatums; the inability of either side to
see eye-to-eye is evidence that the decision on whether or not to
have federalism and in what form, ought to be post-poned.
This
would allow talks to continue in less hurry and in that way provide
atmosphere for a sober decision to be made in a correct manner.
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